I turned on ESPN yesterday night for some pre-game analysis on the Houston Texans-Denver Broncos contest. I wasn't paying too much attention until I heard the following statement: "One of Houston's keys to victory tonight is to give Ron Dayne 20-25 carries."
I did a double take. Ron Dayne? An NFL journeyman with decent size, but limited speed, who is best utilized in a platoon of running backs? It turns out that the analyst was basing his comment on the following fact: the Texans are 4-1 in the past two seasons when Ron Dayne gets more than 20 carries.
This is another example of people confusing correlation for causation. There are two (or maybe more) explanations for the Ron Dayne tidbit:
1) Ron Dayne is a game changing talent who, if given the ball, will more often than not win the contest for you.
2) Ron Dayne getting 20 carries or so is a symptom of things working right offensively for the Texans. When the Texans are firing on all cylinders, Dayne's rushing opportunities and totals may reflect the fact that linebackers and safeties are playing off the line of scrimmage and drop back into coverage, allowing Dayne to get his 5-10 yard runs, or that offensive line play is so dominant that Dayne is able to run clear through the woods.
I think the second explanation is probably the more likely one. After all, can you imagine a defensive coordinator thinking before a game, "wow, we need to get 8 in the box to stop Ron Dayne"? Ron Dayne is a good player, but he's not LaDainian Tomlinson or even Frank Gore - the 2007 version.
In any case, this innocuous episode reflects the danger of attributing causal stories to what are only correlations. Unfortunately, fates of entire policies have hinged on bad inference, that too in arenas less trivial than professional sports.
No comments:
Post a Comment